Mark Zuckerberg insists that he has no plans to run for the presidency. The bookies, nonetheless, aren’t satisfied. On Irish playing website Paddy Energy, he’s given fairly beneficiant odds not solely of him clinching the Democratic nomination (12:1, that means for those who wager $1, you’ll get $13 again), but additionally of successful the final word prize.
With 20/1 odds, Paddy Energy thinks Zuckerberg presidency is equally as probably as Bernie Sanders successful the 2020 election, and extra probably than Ted Cruz successful (who has 33/1 odds). That’s fairly outstanding, contemplating each Sanders and Cruz have been runners-up for his or her respective events’ nominations within the 2016 normal election.
So, why does Zuckerberg have such favorable odds? I spoke to Lee Value, head of PR for Paddy Energy, earlier this morning, who defined that betting markets reply to demand. If the corporate sees a flurry of bets for a selected factor, the chances on that may shorten significantly.
“Before everything, the rationale why [Zuckerberg has such favorable odds] is as a result of we’ve had a number of consideration from the punters,” he mentioned.
“He would have opened within the betting at 50/1 to be the US presidential election winner, however a collection of bets — and we’re speaking about tens of bets, not a whole bunch — have triggered his value to plummet. It was as quick as 16/1 final month, so there’s a number of curiosity round him”
“For context, he’s across the likes of Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, who’s 16/1; George Clooney, who’s 20/1; and fairly a method off from current-President Donald Trump, who’s 5/2,” Value added.
There’s one other issue at play right here, too. Final 12 months was a catastrophe for the bookies, as three issues thought unlikely to move, did. The primary two are apparent: Donald Trump received the US election (this alone price Paddy Energy almost £three.5 million, in line with British tabloid The Solar), and the UK voted (albeit narrowly) to go away the European Union.
The opposite is much less well-known. In opposition to all odds, Leicester Metropolis — a struggling soccer staff who had solely joined England’s top-flight league in 2014, and continually flirted with relegation — received the Premiership. Firstly of the season, some bookies have been providing odds so long as 5,000/1, leaving some followers with payouts as giant as £250,000.
These occasions have resulted within the bookies turning into extra cautious. “We undoubtedly all the time wish to keep away from one other ‘Leicester Metropolis’ state of affairs,” defined Value. “It price us some huge cash.”
Zuckerberg continues to be fairly a long-shot, however his odds mirror a way of cautiousness that implies there’s a definite risk it would occur. “If Trump can get elected, can you actually rule out Mark Zuckerberg?,” requested Value.
In all probability not.